Middle East Times / Insight Monday, July 13, 2009
By Farooq Mitha
Could a meeting between President Barack Obama and Syria’s President Bashar Assad take place? In a recent interview with the Britain’s Sky News, Assad informally invited Obama to meet with him in Damascus and his wife, First Lady Asma Assad, offered to host the Obama family in Damascus’ historic Old City.
These are the latest signs of the warming relations between the U.S. and Syria since President Obama took office, as he lives up to his campaign promise to use the strength of the United States’ diplomacy to engage countries not aligned with the U.S. during the Bush years.
It’s too early to tell if Obama’s strategy of engagement with Syria will produce results. Since taking office the president has sent envoys from the State Department and National Security Council to Damascus, and more recently sent George Mitchell as his special envoy to the Middle East to meet with Assad.
In addition, contacts have taken place between Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and U.S. military officials have visited Damascus. Most recently, the U.S. announced in late June it would send an ambassador back to Damascus after a four-year absence.
Will the U.S. get what it wants from Syria? The Obama administration is looking for a few things. The list begins with security cooperation to stop the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq. While Syria argues that this is a border issue, the U.S. disagrees, saying that the problem is a policy from Damascus that welcomes foreign fighters and helps traffic them from airports across the border.
The U.S. would also like Syria to take further steps to normalize relations with Lebanon while helping maintain Lebanon’s stability through its influence over Hezbollah , and to use its influence over Hamas to support Palestinian efforts to achieve political reconciliation and a unity government.
Washington is likely hoping to peel Syria away from its strong alliance with Iran, but this outcome is very unlikely due to Syrian reliance on Iranian military and intelligence support. The best-case scenario is for the U.S. and its Sunni Arab allies to lessen the Syrian regime’s dependence on Iran by offering it stability and economic development from increased foreign investment that would follow any political reconciliation.
Damascus has its own wish list as well. Sending George Mitchell to Damascus and announcing the commitment to send an ambassador is a good start. Syria also wants an end to the U.S. sanctions placed on it, although the Obama administration is unlikely to lessen the economic pressure without significant Syrian movement on the U.S.’ political agenda.
While there are several sanctions against Syria, the general prohibition on most U.S. exports (except for food and medicine) deters foreign companies that rely on U.S. technology.
As Syria’s oil production steadily declines, it faces a dismal economic future unless it can reform its economy and attract significant foreign investment. Syrian economists worry about the future, despite the possibility that Syria may be accepted into the EU Association Agreement in 2009.
Syria has also consistently asked for the United States to push for direct talks with Israel over the Golan Heights and to serve as a mediator, although Assad has publicly doubted whether the Israeli government of Bibi Netanyahu is ready to talk.
The Obama administration is wise in giving engagement a chance with Syria. But it must be careful not to give too much too fast.
The relationship with Damascus must be a quid pro quo relationship with various measuring points. Syria is a relatively poor state, which derives its regional importance from its ability to undermine U.S. regional political objectives through its support of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and foreign fighters in Iraq.
The interesting question is what the Syrian price would be in return for giving up any one of these cards it holds? And would President Obama be willing or able to meet the price, especially if it depended on the cooperation of the Israeli government?
Recent media reports indicate that diplomatic efforts are, at least superficially, moving in a positive direction. Lebanon appears close to forming a government and its elections went rather smoothly. Further, an Arab rapprochement between Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria is making progress with rumors of an upcoming Saudi-Syrian summit that could include Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri.
This is a significant development because of Hariri’s ties to Saudi Arabia and Arab Sunni tensions with Syria’s alliance with Iran; the latter being Persian and Shia. Much of this has been playing out in Lebanon with Syrian-Iranian support for Hezbollah and a series of assassinations that included the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the result ended up forcing Syria out of Lebanon.
Now, back to the initial question of a meeting between Presidents Obama and Assad. In a YouTube debate during the presidential campaign, Obama said he would be willing to meet with the leaders of Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Syria to search for common ground.
Of the entire list, Syria is the only country that seems serious about working with the new administration towards cooperating on common interests. While it is unlikely that President Obama will be on the next flight to Damascus, the prospect of such a meeting in the future is an intriguing proposition.
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Farooq Mitha is an international policy specialist and is a Fulbright Fellow from the University of Florida currently based in Amman, Jordan.